What “Months of Supply” Really Means: Buyer’s vs Seller’s Market in NY & NJ Right Now

Staten Island has 2.6 months of supply. Hudson County, NJ has 2.9 months. Manhattan has 6.5 months. These numbers tell you whether you’re buying or selling in a buyer’s market or seller’s market in the NY/NJ area right now.

If you’re wondering what these numbers mean for your timing to buy or sell, you’re not alone. Most homeowners and buyers focus on home prices, but months of supply actually tells you more about market conditions and pricing power than the price tag alone.

As your trusted local real estate experts with over 30 years serving Staten Island, Hudson County, and Manhattan markets, the Robert DeFalco Realty team breaks down what these current supply levels really mean for your buying or selling strategy.

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Months of Supply Explained: The 6-Month Rule That Drives Real Estate

Let’s understand what “months of supply” actually measures and why it’s the gold standard for determining market conditions.

The Math: How Months of Supply is Calculated

Months of supply is a simple but powerful calculation that answers this question: “If no new homes were listed for sale, how long would current inventory last based on the current sales pace?”

The Formula:
Months of Supply = Current Active Listings ÷ Average Monthly Sales

The National Association of Realtors defines this metric as the clearest picture of supply and demand in any real estate market.

Example:
If Staten Island currently has 500 active listings and the average monthly sales pace is 190 homes per month, then:
500 ÷ 190 = 2.6 months of supply

This calculation is more meaningful than looking at price trends alone because it directly measures the relationship between what’s available to buy and how quickly it’s selling.

The 6-Month Sweet Spot: Buyer’s, Seller’s, and Neutral Markets

Real estate professionals use a simple spectrum to interpret months of supply:

• 0-3 Months = Seller’s Market (High demand, limited supply, buyers have less negotiating power)
• 3-6 Months = Neutral/Balanced Market (Moderate demand and supply, typical negotiating environment)
• 6+ Months = Buyer’s Market (Lower demand, more inventory, buyers have more negotiating power)

Redfin analysis shows that days on market and sale-to-list price ratios typically confirm these classifications, with shorter DOM and higher sale-to-list percentages in seller’s markets.

Why This Metric Matters More Than Price Alone

Price trends can be misleading. A market where prices are rising could still favor buyers if months of supply is high (supply is plentiful, but buyers are still paying premiums). On the flip side, a market where prices are flat or declining could favor sellers if months of supply is very low (limited inventory creates competition even in flat markets).

Here’s an example. Manhattan currently has 6.5 months of supply, which is a buyer’s market by most standards, but prices remain high because the inventory that exists is premium-priced. Meanwhile, Staten Island’s 2.6 months creates seller leverage even if some price appreciation has slowed.

Understanding months of supply helps you:

• Time your market entry more strategically
• Negotiate from the strongest position possible
• Price your home competitively based on true market dynamics
• Make informed decisions about whether to move now or wait

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Current Months of Supply in NY & NJ: The Real Numbers (2025)

Let’s look at the specific numbers driving our local markets right now. These current readings show stark contrasts across the NY/NJ region that directly impact your buying or selling strategy.

Staten Island Real Estate: 2.6 Months Supply (Seller’s Market)

Current SIBOR data shows Staten Island has just 2.6 months of supply as of February 2025. This represents a big decrease from 3.9 months just one year ago. That’s a 33% drop that has shifted Staten Island firmly into seller’s market territory.

What 2.6 months of supply means:

• Homes are selling quickly. Average Days on Market is just 51 days
• Multiple offers are common, especially for well-priced homes
• Sellers have big pricing leverage
• Buyers need to act fast and make strong offers

This supply level means that Staten Island is experiencing high demand relative to available inventory, creating competitive conditions that favor sellers who price correctly.

Hudson County, NJ: 2.9 Months Supply (Seller’s Market)

Hudson County data from 10kResearch shows the New Jersey market at 2.9 months of supply, also firmly in seller’s market territory.

Signs confirming the seller’s market:

• Sale-to-list price ratio is 98.8% in Hudson County. Homes are selling for nearly full asking price
• Limited Hudson County inventory means buyers face competition
• Multiple offer situations are common for desirable properties

With only 2.9 months of supply, Hudson County sellers can price more aggressively, while buyers need to move quickly and make strong initial offers to compete.

Manhattan Market: 6.5 Months Supply (Neutral/Buyer’s Market)

Manhattan presents a stark contrast with 6.5 months of supply, placing it in the neutral-to-buyer’s market category. This higher supply level reflects:

• More inventory relative to sales pace
• Buyers have more negotiating power
• Longer time on market for sellers
• Price adjustments are more common

Zillow’s buyer-seller index analysis confirms that markets with 6+ months of supply typically show increased price negotiation and longer marketing periods.

National Comparison: Where NY/NJ Stand

How our local markets compare nationally:

• National average: 3.7 months supply (roughly balanced market)
• Staten Island: 2.6 months (strong seller’s market)
• Hudson County: 2.9 months (moderate seller’s market)
• Manhattan: 6.5 months (buyer’s market)

This comparison shows that the outer boroughs and nearby NJ markets are experiencing tighter conditions than the national average, while Manhattan’s inventory levels exceed national benchmarks.

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What These Numbers Mean for YOUR Market Timing

Understanding your specific months of supply reading is crucial for making smart timing decisions. Here’s how to interpret these numbers for your situation.

If You’re Buying in Staten Island (2.6 Months): Act Fast, But Smart

Current market conditions favor sellers, but buyers can still win by following these strategies.

What Staten Island buyers should do:

• Get pre-approved right away. Pre-qualification won’t cut it in this competitive market
• Set alerts for new listings in your target Great Kills submarket and other preferred areas
• Be ready to make offers within 24-48 hours of listing
• Consider offering above asking price for desirable properties
• Waive minor contingencies like financing if you have strong pre-approval

Staten Island market data shows that well-priced homes in good condition receive multiple offers within the first weekend, so hesitation can cost you the home you want.

Calculate your buying power: Use our monthly payment calculator to understand exactly what you can afford in today’s market.

If You’re Buying in Hudson County, NJ (2.9 Months): Slight Edge to Sellers

Hudson County buyers face similar conditions to Staten Island, but the 2.9 months supply gives slightly more breathing room.

Strategic approach for Hudson County:

• Still move quickly on desirable properties, but can afford to be more selective
• Focus on NJ starter homes in emerging neighborhoods before they become hot markets
• Consider properties that have been on market 30+ days. They might be overpriced or have issues
• Strong pre-approval still matters, but can negotiate some terms

The 2.9 months supply means competition exists but isn’t as intense as Staten Island’s 2.6 months reading.

If You’re Selling: Price Strategy for Low Supply

When months of supply is below 3 months (both Staten Island and Hudson County), you have the upper hand. Here’s how to capitalize.

Pricing strategies that work in tight inventory:

• Price at or slightly above market value. Buyers will pay fair price plus a premium in tight markets
• Test higher pricing first. You can always adjust down, but can’t easily adjust up
• Don’t undercut the market. Pricing too low might leave money on the table
• Use competitive bidding. Set a deadline for offers to encourage multiple bids

Watch for these seller’s market signals:

• Showings booked within hours of listing
• Multiple offer situations developing
• Buyers waiving inspection or appraisal contingencies
• Quick closings with minimal requests

When supply is this low, well-prepared sellers who price correctly can expect to sell quickly and receive strong offers.

If You’re Buying in Manhattan (6.5 Months): You Have Options

Manhattan’s 6.5 months of supply gives buyers more negotiating power than the NY/NJ suburbs.

Smart strategies for Manhattan buyers:

• Take your time. Inventory isn’t moving as fast
• Negotiate on price. Sellers are more willing to come down
• Request repairs or credits. Longer marketing times make sellers more flexible
• Look for price reductions. Properties sitting 60+ days often see cuts
• Use inspection results as leverage for negotiation

Watch for motivated sellers:

• Properties with multiple price reductions
• Listings that have been active for 90+ days
• Sellers offering buyer incentives (closing cost credits, rate buydowns)
• Properties with flexible closing dates or rent-back options

In buyer’s markets, patience and strong negotiation often pay off more than quick decisions.

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Actionable Strategies: Buying & Selling in Different Supply Conditions

Your months of supply number should shape your entire approach. Here’s how to adjust your strategy based on current conditions.

Buying Strategy: Low Supply Markets (0-3 Months)

In Staten Island and Hudson County (2.6-2.9 months), speed and strength matter most.

Must-do tactics for tight markets:

Get financially ready first:

• Full mortgage pre-approval (not just pre-qualification)
• Cash reserves for earnest money (3-5% of purchase price)
• Flexibility on closing timeline
• Clean credit and documentation ready

Move fast on good properties:

• Tour homes within 24 hours of listing
• Make offers same day or next morning
• Include escalation clauses (automatically increase offer if competing)
• Minimize contingencies (but keep inspection for big issues)

Write competitive offers:

• Offer above asking on desirable properties (5-10% over if needed)
• Increase earnest money to show commitment
• Write personal letters to sellers (when appropriate)
• Be flexible on possession dates

Avoid common mistakes:

• Don’t lowball in tight markets. You’ll lose the house
• Don’t wait for “the perfect house.” Good ones sell fast
• Don’t demand seller concessions. They have other buyers
• Don’t drag out inspection periods. Quick turnaround is better

Selling Strategy: Low Supply Markets (0-3 Months)

In Staten Island and Hudson County, you can be more aggressive with pricing and terms.

Get top dollar in seller’s markets:

Prepare your home first:

• Make minor repairs before listing (don’t give buyers ammunition)
• Stage professionally or at minimum declutter completely
• Professional photos are non-negotiable
• Clean, neutral, move-in ready condition

Price strategically:

• Start at fair market value or slightly above
• Don’t underprice hoping for bidding war (risky strategy)
• Test the high end first. You can always reduce
• Look at recent sales, but price for current conditions, not 6 months ago

Control the sale process:

• Set offer deadlines to encourage multiple bids
• Review all offers together, not first-come-first-served
• Look at total terms, not just price (contingencies matter)
• Keep backup offers in case primary falls through

Choose the right buyer:

Look for buyers who:

• Are pre-underwritten (not just pre-approved)
• Have large earnest money deposits
• Offer flexible closing dates
• Will allow you to rent back if needed
• Don’t require extensive repairs

Be cautious of buyers who:

• Request major repairs or credits
• Need longer closing periods
• Have fragile financing (FHA, VA loans with restrictions)
• Want to include numerous contingencies

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6-Month Forecast: Will Supply Normalize in NY/NJ?

Looking ahead, here’s what our market analysis suggests for supply levels through 2025-2026.

Staten Island Outlook: New Construction Pipeline Analysis

Limited new construction supply means Staten Island’s 2.6 months supply is likely to persist.

Supply constraints:

• Zoning restrictions limit major developments
• High construction costs make new development challenging
• Community opposition to density increases
• Limited developable land

Robert DeFalco’s prediction: Staten Island supply will remain between 2.5-3.5 months through 2025, creating ongoing seller’s market conditions.

Hudson County Outlook: Rental Conversion Impact

Hudson County’s 2.9 months supply may improve slightly because of:

• Rental-to-condo conversions adding inventory
• New construction in Bayonne and Weehawken
• Economic pressures causing some owners to sell

But high demand will likely keep supply in seller’s market range.

Expert Prediction: Robert DeFalco 2026 Forecast

Based on our decades of market experience and current indicators:

Staten Island (currently 2.6 months):

• Expect 2.5-3.0 months supply through 2025
• Supply increases aren’t likely until 2026
• Sellers should act in current favorable conditions

Hudson County (currently 2.9 months):

• Slight increase to 3.0-3.5 months possible by late 2025
• Rental conversion pipeline may provide temporary relief
• Long-term trend remains toward seller’s market

Manhattan (currently 6.5 months):

• Likely to increase to 7-8 months as more inventory hits market
• High-end buyers may find better negotiating opportunities
• Price adjustments may continue

What Could Change Supply

Factors that could change supply dynamics:

• Interest rate cuts (currently 7-8%): Could increase buyer pool and reduce supply further
• New construction incentives (not likely): Would require policy changes not currently proposed
• Economic recession: Could reduce demand and increase supply
• Immigration policy changes: Could affect rental demand and investor activity

Bottom line: Current low supply conditions are likely to persist through 2025, making now a good time for strategic sellers and prepared buyers.

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Take Action: Get Your Local Supply Number Now

Understanding months of supply is just the beginning. To make the best decisions for your specific situation, you need current data for your neighborhood and property type.

Free Submarket Reports: Great Kills, Bayonne, Union City

Get detailed supply analysis for your specific area:

• Great Kills submarket supply levels and pricing trends
• Bayonne inventory and new construction pipeline
• Union City market dynamics and buyer activity

Request your free submarket report with current months of supply, DOM, and pricing trends.

Schedule Supply Analysis Consultation

Speak directly with our market experts to understand:

• How current supply levels affect your buying or selling timeline
• Specific strategies for your neighborhood and price range
• Pre-market opportunities in tight supply areas
• Timing recommendations based on your goals

Contact us today:

• Phone: (718) 987-7900
• Online: Schedule your consultation
• Email: Get your questions answered by our market team

Remember: Supply numbers change weekly. What you see today may be different next month, so timing matters. Whether you’re ready to buy or sell, understanding current months of supply gives you the information advantage you need to make smart decisions in today’s competitive NY/NJ market.

For more detailed home buying process guidance or first-time buyer tips, our team provides comprehensive support throughout your real estate journey.

Get your free home valuation or CMA report to understand your position in today’s market.

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Frequently Asked Questions About Months of Supply

Q: What is months of supply in real estate?

A: Months of supply is calculated by dividing the current number of active listings by the average monthly sales rate. It answers: “If no new homes were listed, how long would current inventory last at the current sales pace?” NAR standards say 0-3 months means a seller’s market, 3-6 months is neutral, and 6+ months favors buyers.

Q: Is 2.6 months of supply a buyer’s or seller’s market?

A: 2.6 months of supply means a strong seller’s market. With only 2.6 months of inventory, Staten Island sellers have big pricing leverage, and buyers face competition for available homes.

Q: How do I calculate months of supply for my neighborhood?

A: Contact your local real estate professional for current data, or research recent MLS statistics for your area. You’ll need current active listings and average monthly sales over the past 3-6 months for accuracy.

Q: When will Staten Island housing supply increase?

A: Based on current zoning restrictions, high construction costs, and limited developable land, Staten Island’s supply is likely to remain between 2.5-3.5 months through 2025. Relief isn’t expected until new construction projects come online, which may be 2026 or later.

Q: Should I buy now or wait for more inventory?

A: In seller’s markets like Staten Island (2.6 months) and Hudson County (2.9 months), waiting typically means facing more competition and potentially higher prices. But your personal financial situation and timeline should be the main factors. Consider your readiness to buy rather than market timing alone.