Manhattan real estate market has shown remarkable resilience in 2025, defying national headwinds with sustained demand and rising prices across most segments. Sales volume surged to over $19 billion through the first three quarters, median prices climbed to $1.2 million, and luxury properties hit record highs. For buyers and sellers navigating this complex landscape, understanding the data behind these trends is essential.
Bottom Line: Manhattan is operating as a balanced-to-slight seller’s market in late 2025. Sales hit three-year highs, inventory remains tight at roughly 6,500-7,400 active listings, and pricing shows consistent quarterly growth—particularly in the luxury tier. Homes sell in 69-135 days depending on price point, with 60-65% of transactions closing in cash. The forecast through 2026 points to moderate appreciation of 2-4%, supported by Wall Street activity, foreign capital returning, and supply constraints.
Whether you’re considering a purchase in Tribeca, selling a co-op on the Upper East Side, or exploring investment opportunities downtown, Robert DeFalco Realty brings decades of hyperlocal expertise to help you make data-driven decisions in one of the world’s most dynamic markets.
Manhattan Market Snapshot: Key Statistics for 2025
Manhattan real estate statistics for 2025 paint a picture of steady momentum. Through Q3, nearly 9,000 transactions closed—a 5-14% year-over-year increase depending on the quarter. Sales volume reached $19.7 billion across the first three quarters, with Q2 delivering $7.09 billion alone. These numbers reflect both higher transaction counts and sustained price appreciation, particularly in new development and luxury segments.
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Closed Sales | 2,700 | 3,257 | 3,281 | +5% to +14% |
| Sales Volume | $6.05B | $7.09B | $6.56B | +10% to +39% |
| Median Price | $1.175M | $1.240M | $1.20M | +3% to +12% |
| Active Listings | ~7,000 | 7,362 | 6,536 | -2% to +1% |
| Days on Market | 95 | 88 | 103 | -7 to -14 days |
Sales Activity & Transaction Volume
The Manhattan housing market data shows consistent quarterly growth in signed contracts—six consecutive quarters of annual increases through Q3, the longest streak since before 2009. Nearly 2,600 contracts were signed in Q3 alone, signaling strong forward momentum into year-end. This activity spans all property types: condos, co-ops, and townhouses each posted year-over-year gains.
Transaction velocity improved notably. Days on market dropped from 103 days in Q3 2024 to 103 days in Q3 2025 (holding steady), but earlier in the year saw sharper improvements—down to 69 days by some measures in Q1. Faster turnover reflects confident buyers and sellers pricing strategically to close deals.
Pricing Metrics Across Property Types
Condo pricing leads the market. The average price per square foot for Manhattan condos reached $1,998 in Q3, essentially flat year-over-year but up from the 2020 lows. Median condo prices hovered around $1.65-$1.8 million depending on the data source, with new developments commanding premiums. Co-ops, traditionally more affordable, saw median prices rise to $860K-$1M, an 8% annual gain that reflects renewed interest as buyers seek entry points amid high mortgage rates.
Townhouses and single-family homes occupy the ultra-luxury tier. August 2025 data showed a median house sale price of $9.8 million, up 65.7% year-over-year—though this reflects a small sample size and mix shift toward high-end properties.
Inventory & Supply Trends
Manhattan real estate analysis consistently highlights tight supply as the market’s defining feature. Active listings totaled 6,536 in Q3, up just 1% annually but down 11% from the prior quarter. New listings rose modestly (+5% YoY), but strong absorption kept overall inventory lean. This scarcity drives competition and supports price growth, particularly in desirable neighborhoods and building classes.
Months of supply sit below three, signaling a seller-friendly environment. Historically low vacancy rates—Manhattan residential vacancy hovers around 2.11%, among the lowest in the U.S.—compound the inventory shortage. Limited new development deliveries over the next few years will keep supply constrained through 2026, barring unforeseen economic shocks.
Manhattan Neighborhood Spotlight: Where Prices Are Moving
Manhattan real estate by neighborhood varies dramatically. Tribeca, the Financial District, and the Upper East Side command the highest price per square foot, often exceeding $2,500-$3,000 for luxury condos. Hudson Yards and Chelsea attract new development interest, while Greenwich Village and the West Village maintain premium pricing due to historic charm and walkability. Understanding these micro-markets is critical—pricing and demand differ block by block.
Luxury Market Performance
The luxury segment—defined as the top 10% of sales—delivered exceptional results in 2025. Sales of properties priced $10 million and above surged 37% in Q1, with the average luxury home price hitting $10.3 million, a record high. Entry-level luxury rose to $4.4 million, up nearly 20% annually. Price per square foot in this tier reached $3,173, reflecting demand from ultra-high-net-worth buyers seeking bespoke features, privacy, and exclusivity.
Family offices and international investors drove much of this activity, viewing Manhattan real estate as a stable asset class during stock market volatility. Penthouses with private terraces, whole-floor apartments, and units in trophy buildings saw multiple bids. Buildings along Billionaires’ Row (57th Street corridor) and new developments in Tribeca and FiDi anchored luxury volume.
Mid-Market Dynamics
The mid-market—properties priced $1-$3 million—faced headwinds. Signed contracts for this segment declined 10% in early 2025, squeezed by affordability pressures and competition from both higher-end buyers stretching budgets and entry-level purchasers seeking value. Mortgage rates hovering near 6.5% disproportionately impact this cohort, as fewer buyers can pay all cash.
However, the entry-level tier ($500K-$1M) showed resilience. Co-op buyers, particularly first-timers and young professionals, found opportunities in neighborhoods like the Upper West Side, Harlem, and Washington Heights. These areas offer relative affordability, transit access, and cultural amenities—ideal for those prioritizing homeownership over premium finishes.
For a deeper comparison of Manhattan versus neighboring markets, see our Manhattan vs. Brooklyn buyers guide.
Is Manhattan a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market in 2025?
Manhattan operates as a balanced market tilting slightly toward sellers in late 2025. Multiple indicators support this assessment: inventory remains below historical averages, homes sell faster than in 2023-2024, and sale-to-list price ratios hover near 100%. Sellers achieve asking price or close to it, while buyers face limited negotiation leverage except at the highest price points or for properties with longer market times.
That said, Manhattan is not a frenzied seller’s market. Bidding wars remain uncommon outside trophy buildings and newly listed prime properties. Buyers have time to conduct due diligence, inspect financials, and negotiate terms—unlike the pressure-cooker environments of 2021. Sellers who overprice still see extended days on market and eventual reductions.
For buyers: Focus on speed and preparation. Secure mortgage pre-approval, work with agents who know building-level dynamics, and act decisively on well-priced inventory. Properties priced correctly move within 30-60 days. Opportunities exist in co-ops, where board approval timelines slow competition, and in units requiring cosmetic updates.
For sellers: Price strategically from day one. Overpricing leads to stale listings and weaker final offers. Highlight unique features—outdoor space, low monthlies, recent renovations—and ensure your building’s financials and reserve funds are sound. Buyers scrutinize board minutes, audited statements, and capital projects. Properties in well-managed buildings with strong reserves close faster and command premiums. Ready to position your property competitively? Contact our team for a comprehensive market analysis tailored to your building and unit.
Manhattan Real Estate Forecast: What to Expect Through 2026
The Manhattan real estate forecast for the next 12-18 months centers on four key drivers: mortgage rates, Wall Street performance, foreign investment flows, and supply constraints. Analysts predict moderate price appreciation of 2-4% through 2026, with luxury outpacing mid-market and new development commanding premiums.
Key Drivers Shaping the Market
Mortgage rates: The 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.5% in late 2025, down slightly from 2024 peaks but still elevated by historical standards. The Federal Reserve’s rate decisions will dictate mortgage affordability. A move toward 6% would stimulate financed buyer activity; a return to 7%+ would further favor cash purchasers. Given Manhattan’s 60-65% cash buyer concentration, rate movements have less impact here than in most U.S. markets—but they still matter for the 35-40% using financing.
Banking and finance: Wall Street bonuses correlate strongly with Manhattan real estate activity. Deregulation efforts under the current administration aim to boost deal flow in investment banking and private equity. Higher compensation flows directly into property purchases, particularly in luxury condos near Midtown, FiDi, and Hudson Yards. A robust bonus season in early 2026 could propel Q1 sales.
Foreign investors: International capital returned to Manhattan in 2025 after several slow years. Confidence in U.S. economic policy, AI infrastructure investments, and stock market gains attracted buyers from Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. This trend should persist through 2026, adding demand at the $2M+ price points where foreign purchasers typically concentrate.
Supply constraints: Minimal new construction deliveries are expected before 2027, with only 10+ million square feet of new development slated by 2032. Office-to-residential conversions (14.2 million square feet planned or underway) will gradually add units, but the pace is slow. Limited supply supports pricing and prevents oversupply corrections.
Price Projections by Segment
Luxury ($4M+): Expect 4-6% appreciation. Demand from UHNW buyers remains strong, inventory is scarce in trophy buildings, and global uncertainty drives safe-haven allocations to prime real estate.
Mid-market ($1M-$3M): Modest 1-2% growth. Affordability pressures and rate sensitivity constrain demand, though improved Wall Street compensation could boost this tier.
Entry-level ($500K-$1M): 2-3% gains. Co-ops in this range benefit from relative affordability and first-time buyer interest. Limited options mean well-located units hold value.
Opportunities & Risks
Opportunities: Buyers with financing access can capitalize on less competition. Co-ops offer value versus condos. Sellers who priced correctly in late 2025 will benefit from low inventory and spring 2026 demand.
Risks: Mortgage rate spikes above 7% would slow transaction volume. A Wall Street downturn or recession would dampen luxury demand. Tariff uncertainty or geopolitical shocks could pause foreign investment. Monitor these factors closely—market sentiment can shift within quarters.
Luxury vs. Mid-Market: Tale of Two Markets
Manhattan luxury real estate and the mid-market tell contrasting stories in 2025. The $10M+ segment thrived, with sales jumping 29-37% and average prices hitting all-time highs of $10.3 million. Buyers in this tier—family offices, hedge fund principals, tech executives, and international wealth—are less sensitive to mortgage rates and economic volatility. They seek unique architectural features, privacy, and long-term legacy assets. Buildings like 432 Park Avenue, One57, and 220 Central Park South saw robust activity.
Conversely, the $1M-$3M mid-market struggled. Signed contracts fell 10% in early 2025 as this cohort faced the dual squeeze of elevated prices and 6.5% mortgage rates. Many potential buyers in this range need financing, and monthly carrying costs (mortgage, taxes, maintenance) stretched budgets. Some shifted to rentals; others looked to outer boroughs. This segment requires careful pricing and realistic expectations.
The entry-level market ($500K-$1M) performed surprisingly well. Co-ops dominated this tier, offering affordability relative to condos. First-time buyers and young professionals prioritized ownership, accepting board approval processes and subletting restrictions in exchange for lower purchase prices. Neighborhoods like Inwood, Washington Heights, and parts of Harlem delivered value, with strong transit access and community amenities.
Investment motivations differ by segment. Ultra-luxury buyers focus on wealth preservation and diversification. Mid-market purchasers prioritize primary residence value and neighborhood quality. Entry-level buyers seek homeownership and building equity. Understanding these motivations helps sellers position properties and buyers target searches effectively.
Co-ops vs. Condos: Which is Winning in 2025?
The Manhattan coop market experienced a resurgence in 2025, driven by affordability dynamics. Co-op median prices rose 8.1% year-over-year to $860K, while condos climbed to $1.65-$1.8M—a significant spread. For buyers prioritizing purchase price over flexibility, co-ops deliver value. Neighborhoods with strong co-op stock—Upper West Side, Upper East Side, Gramercy—saw steady demand.
However, condos retain advantages for investors and international buyers. Co-op boards restrict subletting, often require minimum residency periods, and impose rigorous financial vetting. Condos allow easier rentals, lower down payment requirements (often 10-20% vs. 20%+ for co-ops), and simpler closings without board interviews. These factors make condos the default choice for foreign purchasers, second-home buyers, and investors seeking rental income.
Transaction volume by type favored condos in absolute numbers, given new development pipeline focus on condo structures. But co-ops saw improved relative performance as rate-sensitive buyers sought lower entry prices. The financing gap matters: a $1.5M condo at 6.5% interest costs significantly more monthly than an $850K co-op, even accounting for higher maintenance fees on the latter.
Board approval timelines also play a role. Co-op packages require extensive documentation, board interviews, and 4-8 week approval processes. This slower pace deters some buyers but creates opportunities for patient purchasers facing less competition. For a detailed exploration of Manhattan’s co-op landscape, including board approval strategies, see our Chinatown Manhattan real estate guide.
Impact of Mortgage Rates on Manhattan Buyers
Manhattan mortgage rates remain elevated at 6.5% for 30-year fixed loans in late 2025, down marginally from 2024 peaks but well above the sub-4% environment of 2020-2021. This impacts home affordability Manhattan significantly. A buyer financing $1 million at 6.5% pays roughly $6,320/month (principal and interest), versus $4,770 at 4.5%—a difference of $1,550 monthly or $18,600 annually.
Yet Manhattan’s cash buyer dominance—60-65% of transactions close without financing—blunts rate impact relative to other markets. Cash buyers include UHNW individuals, family offices, and foreign investors parking capital in stable assets. This cohort drives luxury and new development sales, while financed buyers concentrate in mid-market and entry-level tiers.
For financed buyers, affordability calculations require factoring monthly maintenance or common charges (often $1,000-$3,000+), property taxes, and debt-to-income ratios. Lenders typically cap housing costs at 28% of gross income, limiting purchasing power. Strategies to navigate high rates include:
- Larger down payments: Reduce loan amounts and monthly payments. 30-40% down improves approval odds.
- Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs): Lower initial rates (often 5.5-6%) benefit buyers planning shorter hold periods or refinances.
- Co-op focus: Lower purchase prices stretch budgets further, even with higher maintenance fees.
- Rate buy-downs: Pay upfront points to reduce interest rates, beneficial if holding long-term.
Monitor Federal Reserve policy closely. Any moves toward rate cuts in 2026 could improve financing conditions and unlock pent-up demand, particularly in the mid-market where financed buyers dominate.
FAQs: Manhattan Real Estate Market 2025
What is the median home price in Manhattan in 2025?
The median home price in Manhattan ranges from $1.175 million to $1.24 million depending on the quarter and data source. Q2 2025 saw the second-highest median on record at $1.24M. Prices vary significantly by property type: condos average $1.65-$1.8M, co-ops $860K-$1M, and townhouses $9.8M.
How long do homes take to sell in Manhattan?
Days on market in Manhattan vary by price point and season. Q3 2025 averaged 103 days, a modest improvement from 2024. Luxury properties and well-priced units sell faster—often 30-60 days. Overpriced inventory lingers 135+ days. Cash deals close quicker than financed transactions, and co-ops take longer due to board approval timelines.
Is now a good time to buy in Manhattan?
For buyers with financial readiness, late 2025 and early 2026 present opportunities. Inventory remains tight, but rate-sensitive competition is reduced. Spring typically brings increased activity and pricing pressure, so winter months may offer negotiation leverage. Work with local experts to identify well-priced inventory and act decisively—properties priced correctly move quickly.
What neighborhoods offer the best value?
Entry-level value exists in Washington Heights, Inwood, Harlem, and parts of the Upper West Side. These areas offer strong transit access, community amenities, and co-op inventory under $1M. For mid-market buyers, explore FiDi (Financial District) new developments with low carrying costs and Chelsea buildings with reasonable maintenance fees.
How do Manhattan prices compare to Brooklyn?
Manhattan median prices ($1.2M+) significantly exceed Brooklyn’s ($1.1M), but Brooklyn has seen faster recent appreciation in neighborhoods like Park Slope, DUMBO, and Williamsburg. Manhattan offers density, walkability, and job proximity; Brooklyn provides more space and neighborhood diversity. Both markets remain competitive.
Will Manhattan prices crash in 2025?
A price crash is highly unlikely. Demand remains robust, inventory is tight, and cash buyers dominate. Manhattan historically demonstrates resilience during economic downturns, particularly in prime neighborhoods. Moderate corrections (5-10%) could occur if mortgage rates spike above 7.5% or a recession hits, but wholesale crashes are implausible given supply constraints and wealthy buyer base.
What percentage of Manhattan buyers pay cash?
Approximately 60-65% of Manhattan transactions close in cash. This rate is much higher than the national average (~25%) and reflects the concentration of UHNW buyers, foreign investors, and family offices. Luxury properties see even higher cash percentages (75%+), while entry-level co-ops have more financed purchases.
How has the luxury market performed?
Manhattan luxury real estate outperformed all other segments in 2025. Sales of $10M+ properties surged 37%, average luxury prices hit $10.3M (a record), and price per square foot reached $3,173. Family offices and international capital drove demand, seeking privacy, exclusivity, and wealth preservation. The luxury market remains the strongest segment heading into 2026.
Expert Insights: Working with Manhattan Real Estate Professionals
Navigating Manhattan’s real estate market requires more than data—it demands hyperlocal expertise, building-level knowledge, and relationships. Understanding co-op board preferences, identifying buildings with strong reserves, and recognizing value in specific unit lines separates successful transactions from missed opportunities.
Manhattan real estate agents with decades of experience know which buildings have pending capital assessments, which boards favor owner-occupants over investors, and which neighborhoods are poised for appreciation. They access off-market inventory, negotiate with listing agents, and guide clients through complex financials. For buyers, this expertise prevents costly mistakes—purchasing in a building with deferred maintenance or underfunded reserves can erase equity.
For sellers, positioning your property competitively requires honest assessment of condition, pricing strategy, and marketing. Highlighting low monthly carrying costs, recent building improvements, or tax abatements attracts buyers. Professional staging, high-quality photography, and targeted outreach to qualified buyers accelerate sales. Overpricing—even by 5-10%—results in stale listings and lower final offers.
Co-op board approval is a unique Manhattan challenge. Boards review financials, employment history, references, and interview candidates. Experienced agents prep clients thoroughly, ensuring package completeness and interview readiness. Rejection rates vary by building, but working with knowledgeable professionals minimizes risk.
At Robert DeFalco Realty, we bring decades of expertise across Manhattan’s diverse neighborhoods and property types. Whether you’re exploring Manhattan homes for sale, evaluating co-op versus condo trade-offs, or timing a sale, our team provides data-driven guidance grounded in real market knowledge. Schedule a consultation to discuss your specific goals and how current market dynamics impact your strategy.
Conclusion: Manhattan’s Market Heading into 2026
Manhattan’s real estate market demonstrated strength throughout 2025, with sales, pricing, and contract activity all trending positively. The luxury segment led the way, but entry-level co-ops and new developments also found buyers. Tight inventory, moderate mortgage rates, and Wall Street performance supported pricing, while foreign investment added high-end demand.
Looking ahead, the forecast calls for moderate 2-4% appreciation through 2026, with luxury continuing to outpace mid-market. Supply constraints will persist, keeping competition healthy in well-priced inventory. Mortgage rate movements, bonus season strength, and geopolitical stability remain wildcards—monitor these factors as you plan transactions.
For buyers: Act decisively on well-priced opportunities. Secure financing pre-approval, focus on buildings with strong fundamentals, and lean on local expertise to navigate co-op boards and building-level nuances.
For sellers: Price accurately from day one, highlight your property’s unique advantages, and ensure your building’s financials support value. Spring 2026 should bring robust activity—position now to capitalize.
Manhattan remains one of the world’s premier real estate markets, offering stability, appreciation potential, and unmatched lifestyle. Whether you’re entering the market or repositioning your portfolio, Robert DeFalco Realty stands ready to guide you with transparency, data, and decades of local knowledge. Reach out today to explore how these trends impact your specific situation.